In 2024, the United States was just one of 72 countries to hold elections. Deemed a banner year for elections, nearly half of the world’s population had the opportunity to go to the polls. Donald Trump’s return to the White House should be placed in the broader context of challenging economic headwinds as a result of post-pandemic inflation levels and rising costs. Globally, voters delivered a resounding rebuke to incumbent parties: nearly all incumbents in developed, high-income countries that held elections in 2024 lost significant vote share. It was these broader economic trends that were central to the 2024 US presidential campaign and on which voters trusted Trump’s messages. Now 100 days into his presidency, it is timely to ask whether his early actions in office align with the expectations of his electors.
Expectations vs reality: Plummeting approval ratings
Trump’s approval rating continues to decline as he approaches day 100 – 40 per cent among American adults, down from 47 per cent at the start of his term. This marks the lowest approval rating for an American president at the 100-day mark since Eisenhower. Trump’s victory was dependent on a coalition of voters, including MAGA loyalists and right-leaning independents. And while he largely retains the support of his Republican base (86 per cent approval among Republicans vs 93 per cent disapproval among Democrats), his rating among independents has fallen to 31 per cent and among those who did not strongly support his candidacy by 13 per cent.
These early numbers indicate an erosion of support among independents and moderates who helped elect Trump in 2024. Trump’s electoral victory was largely fuelled by voters’ economic concerns, and despite election night claims of having ‘an unprecedented and powerful mandate’, only 31.5 per cent of the electorate (those entitled to vote including overseas voters) cast their votes for Trump in 2024, and his popular vote share was below 50 per cent. The narrow popular vote margin is coupled with the winner-takes-all Electoral College system, which amplifies marginal victories. For example, Trump won key swing states like Pennsylvania (120,266 votes), Michigan (80,103 votes) and Wisconsin (29,397 votes) by narrow margins. Despite this victory, the waning support over his first 100 days shows that many of the actions he has taken thus far are alienating voters.
Economic policy
Reflecting broader global trends, most voters expressed dissatisfaction with the economy over post-pandemic inflation levels and rising prices. 68 per cent of the electorate rated the economy either poor or not so good (Trump won 70 per cent of these voters vs 28 per cent for Harris), while only 31 per cent of voters felt that the economy was in excellent or good shape (Harris won 91 per cent of these voters vs Trump’s 8 per cent). This is in stark contrast to 2020 where voters were more evenly split on their assessment of the economy. The economy was a big concern for many voters, with 32 per cent rating it their most important issue (Trump won 80 per cent of these votes vs Harris’s 19 per cent). Despite the US having experienced significantly higher levels of post-pandemic economic growth when compared to its G10 peers, voters were still dissatisfied with the state of the economy and this issue was a top priority for the 2024 electorate (Brookings Institute).
While Trump was elected by voters for whom the economy was a top concern, only 39 per cent of Americans currently approve of his handling of the economy. This discontent is borne out in other economic indicators like the Consumer Sentiment Index, which has continued to drop from 71.1 points in January 2025 to 52.2 points in April, marking a 26.6 per cent decline in consumer confidence and its lowest reading since July 2022. These readings come after a series of tariffs on American trade partners which have created a great deal of uncertainty around the cost of goods. In fact, when it comes to specific economic policies, the majority (59 per cent) of Americans disapprove of Trump’s tariff policy while only 34 per cent approve.
Immigration policy
While Trump’s popularity on the economy is declining, his handling of immigration has remained more popular, with 46 per cent of Americans approving (vs 53 per cent disapproving) although this has declined since he took office. Although Trump campaigned on promises to deport undocumented migrants and tighten security at the US southern border, 48 per cent of Americans think the administration has gone too far in deporting undocumented migrants, and only 39 per cent approve of the deportations of international students accused of criticising the US’s Middle East policy.
Even though Trump has largely upheld his campaign promises on immigration, many Americans see his approach to deportations as excessive. Future polling data may reflect a continuing decline in approval on this issue, as more extreme policies – like the disappearing of Venezuelan immigrants to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador – continue.
Checks and balances
In addition to Trump’s relatively narrow electoral margin and declining approval among his voters, Republicans also maintain a narrow seat margin in the House of Representatives, with 220 Republicans elected to 215 Democrats (now 213).
This narrow margin means that, if every representative is present in the House for each vote, Republicans can only lose two members in order to pass legislation. Institutionally, this will make it difficult for Trump to push some of the more extreme components of his policy agenda through the legislature. This was evidenced in the budget resolution vote on 10 April, when two Republican representatives voted against the budget plan alongside Democrats. While the bill ultimately passed, this illustrates some of the difficulties Trump might face in the future to enact radical policy measures. Similarly, in the Senate, four Republicans voted with Democrats in an attempt to block Trump’s tariffs against Canada.
If Trump wants to maintain a narrow institutional margin in Congress as he looks towards the 2026 midterm elections, the administration should rein in some of these extreme and unpopular policy measures that could serve to divide the Republican party and the electorate.
Although we might expect Congress to serve as a check on the president, particularly with such slim margins in the House, Trump seems to be relying heavily on Executive Orders to advance his agenda. This unilateral action is largely unpopular, with more than half of Americans feeling that Trump is enacting too much policy through Executive Orders. In terms of the judiciary, Americans also believe the administration should follow federal court rulings (78 per cent) as well as Supreme Court rulings (88 per cent).
What’s next for Democrats?
While Democrats faced defeat at the top of the ticket and lost control of the Senate, Democratic Senate candidates performed well in down-ballot races, outperforming Harris in key swing states. Elissa Slotkin defeated the Republican candidate in Michigan by 0.3 per cent of the vote. Tammy Baldwin (WI), Jacky Rosen (NV) and Ruben Gallego (AZ) are just some of those Democratic candidates whose successes followed a similar pattern with respective .9%, 1.7%, and 2.5% victories over their Republican counterparts. These victories demonstrate that some Democratic candidates were able to manifest electoral wins even in states where Trump won the presidential vote.
In addition to the popularity of key Democratic candidates, many progressive policy measures were on the ballot in 2024. In Arizona, Missouri and Montana, states where Trump led, ballot measures protecting the right to abortion access passed (a ballot measure to expand abortion access in Florida garnered 57.2 per cent of the vote, but did not meet the 60 per cent threshold to pass). Additionally, measures protecting the right to abortion access passed in Democrat-held states Colorado and Maryland, resulting in reproductive access victories in five of the seven states that had such measures on the ballot. Similarly, progressive policies to increase minimum wage and ensure sick leave for workers passed in Alaska and Missouri.
Further demonstrating the popularity of Democratic policies, YouGov research provided voters with a set 128 policies (64 Democratic policies; 64 Republican policies) and asked respondents to state whether they supported or opposed them. While the policies covered a broad range of issues (the economy, immigration, environment and energy, education, health care, crime, social issues and foreign policy), voters were not told which candidate or party supported the measure. In this blind policy rating, 89 per cent of Democratic policies were supported by more than half of respondents, while only 48 per cent of Republican policies reached similar levels of support. More specifically, support for protecting access to reproductive rights has increased from about 50 per cent (2020) to 67 per cent in 2024.
While Harris campaigned on many of these popular, progressive policies, most notably on reproductive health care, nearly half of the voters who support legalised abortion in most cases voted for Trump. These patterns indicate that, although support for abortion access has increased, this issue was not necessarily decisive for voters when choosing their president.
Taken together, it is clear that down-ballot Democratic candidates and progressive policies are popular among voters, while the Trump administration has continued to pursue measures on the economy and immigration that have eroded support among its moderate supporters. Where should the Democratic party go from here? If the Democrats are to secure electoral success in the 2026 midterm elections, they will need to win over moderate and independent voters who have become disenchanted with Trump’s aggressive agenda. They will need to emphasise popular progressive policies and provide voters with an alternative to the current direction of the administration.
Kaitlin Senk is a Lecturer in Politics at the University of Bath.
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